Week in review
Week of 28 September: payrolls miss, an October hike fades
US payrolls rose by only 29,000 and markets pulled back from an October Fed hike, the RBA hiked to 4.60%, eurozone inflation jumped to 3.8%, yields touched their highest since 2002, and what the week meant on a challenge account.
On Monday we listed the week's events: an RBA decision, PCE, ISM, the US jobs report and eurozone inflation. Here is how they actually came in. Most of the week was about the dollar and yields grinding higher. Friday turned that around in a single release. Prices below are as of Friday afternoon New York time, around the end of the week's last session.
The week's data
| Release | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|
| RBA rate decision (Tue) | 4.60% | 4.60%, a 25 bp hike, 9 to 0 vote |
| US JOLTS job openings, August (Tue) | about 7.23 million | 7.08 million |
| Australia CPI, August, y/y (Wed) | - | 4.0%, up from 3.5% |
| US core PCE, August, m/m (Wed) | 0.3% | 0.2%, 3.0% y/y |
| US ISM manufacturing, September (Thu) | 55.0 | 54.5, prices paid 77.9 |
| Eurozone flash CPI, September, y/y (Fri) | 3.6% to 3.7% | 3.8%, highest since 2023 |
| US nonfarm payrolls, September (Fri) | about 84,000 | 29,000 |
| US unemployment rate (Fri) | 4.1% | 4.2% |
Tuesday and Wednesday: a hike in Sydney, softer inflation in Washington
The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.60%, its fourth hike this year and the highest level in almost 15 years. The decision was fully expected, so the bigger move in AUD came a day later. Australian inflation jumped to 4.0%, yet the Australian dollar fell, as markets read the number as less pressure for an immediate further hike.
In the US, core PCE rose 0.2% in August, cooler than the 0.3% expected, and the annual rate fell to 3.0% from 3.3%. Part of that drop came from an annual change in how the BEA measures some prices, not only from prices cooling.
Thursday: factories slower, prices hotter
The ISM manufacturing index slipped to 54.5, still in expansion for the ninth month, but the prices paid component jumped to 77.9 from 71.1. A hot prices reading kept the October hike case alive going into Friday.
Friday: two releases, two directions
Eurozone inflation came first, at 3.8%, up from 3.2% and above forecasts. Energy prices were up 18.8% on the year and explained close to half of it. Core inflation rose to 2.5%.
Then the US jobs report. Payrolls rose by just 29,000, against about 84,000 expected, and revisions removed 60,000 jobs from July and August, with July now showing a loss. Unemployment rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%, the slowest since 2021. After the report, CME FedWatch showed about a 77% chance that the Fed holds in October, after markets had priced a high chance of a hike going into the week.
Yields, the dollar and major pairs
The US 10-year yield touched its highest level since 2002 earlier in the week. It dipped on the jobs report, then turned higher again and stood near 5.28% on Friday afternoon.
- EUR/USD, last Friday
- about 1.139
- EUR/USD, weekly low
- about 1.1215
- EUR/USD, Friday afternoon
- about 1.128
- Dollar index, high of the week
- near 102, highest since April 2025
EUR/USD fell for a fourth straight week and touched a level last seen in May 2025, before bouncing after payrolls. The dollar index gained 2% in September, its best month since June.
Gold, oil and stocks
Gold was down more than 3% on the week by Friday morning, near $4,155 an ounce, its second weekly loss in a row, as high yields and a firm dollar weighed. The jobs report pulled it back above $4,200.
Oil fell below $100 again. Brent dropped close to 3% on Friday to about $99.70, on reports of talks over additional crude and diesel stock releases, even as the US said a third carrier strike group was heading to the Middle East.
Stocks rallied on Friday as rate hike bets faded. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,722.72 and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%, but the S&P and the Dow still finished the week lower.
What the week meant on a challenge account
- A release that reverses the week. Four days of dollar strength were partly undone in minutes on Friday. A position built on the week's trend and held into payrolls carried the whole release as risk. Size it against the day's room, not the balance. On a $50,000 Sprint that room is $2,000. See why 1% risk is a quarter of your day.
- Two bursts on one day. Eurozone inflation and US payrolls both landed on Friday. Spreads can widen and fills can slip around each one, and both count against floating equity, which is what the daily limit watches (Challenge Rules 6.8).
- The first move is not always the move. Yields fell on the jobs report, then rose again within hours. Trading the release on your own view is allowed. Placing opposing orders around it to catch the spike is news bracketing, and it is prohibited (Challenge Rules 7.2(a)). The company may also restrict trading around high-impact events, and those restrictions are published in your dashboard (Challenge Rules 6.5).
- Gold at size. A $40 swing in gold is $4,000 on one lot, twice the daily room on a $50,000 Sprint. Gold moved about that much on Friday alone.
- The weekend. Positions can be held over the weekend, and the daily limit applies on weekends too (Challenge Rules 6.6). With Middle East headlines still moving oil, a gap at Monday's open counts like any other move. See how the daily drawdown limit works.
Next week
With the jobs report out of the way, attention turns to the next round of US inflation data ahead of the Fed's 28 October meeting. A full preview of the week's events comes on Monday.
This article is market commentary for information only. It is not a forecast, a recommendation or financial advice, and prices are approximate, taken from public market reports at the time of writing. VFUNDED provides simulated trading evaluations: trading activity is simulated and performance rewards are not guaranteed.