Week ahead
Week of 5 October: Fed minutes after a weak jobs report
The week's scheduled events for forex traders. US ISM services on Monday, the minutes of the Fed's September hike on Wednesday, the ECB account on Thursday, Canadian jobs and US consumer sentiment on Friday, and what each one means under the challenge rules.
Last Friday the US added only 29,000 jobs in September, and markets scaled back their bets on a second Fed hike at the 28 October meeting. This week has no US inflation or jobs report to settle that question. Instead it brings the minutes of the September meeting, where the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, plus services data, Canadian jobs and US consumer sentiment. Below is what is scheduled, what markets expect, and what each event means on a challenge account. This is a calendar, not a forecast: we do not say which way anything will move.
Where the week starts
Friday's close left EUR/USD at about 1.125, its fourth weekly loss in a row and close to its lowest level in a year. Gold ended at about $4,170 an ounce, down for a second week, and Brent at about $103. USD/JPY finished near 157.50, and the US Dollar Index held above 102. The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.
The calendar
Times are server time (UTC). Previous and consensus figures are from public market reports at the time of writing.
| Day | Time | Event | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct | 14:00 | US ISM services PMI, September | 55.4 | 55.1 |
| Tue 6 Oct | 09:00 | Eurozone retail sales, August, m/m | −0.6% | 0.3% |
| Tue 6 Oct | 12:30 | US trade balance, August | -$88.6 billion | -$95.2 billion |
| Wed 7 Oct | - | RBI rate decision | - | a hike to 5.50% |
| Wed 7 Oct | 18:00 | FOMC minutes, 15 to 16 September meeting | - | - |
| Thu 8 Oct | 11:30 | ECB account of the September meeting | - | - |
| Thu 8 Oct | 12:30 | US initial jobless claims | 197,000 | 200,000 |
| Fri 9 Oct | 12:30 | Canada employment change, September | - | +9,500 |
| Fri 9 Oct | 12:30 | Canada unemployment rate | 6.4% | 6.5% |
| Fri 9 Oct | 14:00 | University of Michigan sentiment, October, preliminary | 48.1 | 48.1 |
China's September CPI is also due on Friday, and OPEC+ met on Sunday, which matters for oil after a week with Brent above $100. US CPI is not this week: it is scheduled for Wednesday 14 October.
Monday: services
Services make up most of the US economy, which makes ISM services the main data release of the week. The headline is expected to slip to 55.1 from 55.4. After last week's ISM manufacturing report showed prices paid jumping to 77.9, the prices component of the services survey will get as much attention as the headline.
Wednesday: the Fed minutes
The minutes cover the 15 to 16 September meeting, where the Fed raised its range to 3.75% to 4.00% in a 12 to 0 vote. They were written before Friday's jobs report, so they show how the committee thought about further hikes before the labour data softened. Minutes land at 18:00 server time, late in the New York session, when liquidity is thinner than in the morning. The same evening, the results of a 10-year Treasury auction come out at 17:01.
Friday: Canada and US sentiment
Canada's jobs report comes out at 12:30, the same slot the US payrolls report usually takes, so USD/CAD can move sharply in the first minutes. Ninety minutes later, the preliminary University of Michigan survey is expected to hold at 48.1. Its inflation expectations can matter as much as the headline, with the Fed debating whether to hike again.
What the week means on a challenge account
- News trading is allowed, with limits. You may open, modify or close positions around scheduled announcements. The company may restrict trading shortly before, during or right after high-impact events. Any restrictions and restricted event lists are published in your dashboard (Challenge Rules 6.5). Check it on Monday, before ISM services.
- No bracketing the release. Placing a buy stop and a sell stop around the minutes or the Canadian jobs report to catch the first spike in either direction is news bracketing, and it is prohibited (Challenge Rules 7.2(a)). A position based on your own view of the market is fine.
- Size against the day, not the balance. On a $50,000 Sprint the daily room is $2,000. A $30 move in gold is $3,000 on one lot, and a release can move gold more than that in minutes. See why 1% risk is a quarter of your day.
- Late releases sit close to the reset. The minutes come out at 18:00 server time, six hours before the day resets at 00:00. A loss taken in the evening still counts against that day. The rollover period runs from about 23:55 to 00:15, when trading is allowed but execution can be worse (Challenge Rules 6.7). See how the daily drawdown limit works.
- Spreads and slippage count. Around releases and at rollover, spreads can widen and fills can slip. Both go into floating equity, which is what the daily limit watches (Challenge Rules 6.8).
- The weekend follows Friday's data. Positions can be held over the weekend, and the daily limit applies on weekends too (Challenge Rules 6.6). A gap at Monday's open counts like any other move.
Next
On Friday after the close we will look back at how the week actually played out.
This article is market commentary for information only. It is not a forecast, a recommendation or financial advice, and prices are approximate, taken from public market reports at the time of writing. VFUNDED provides simulated trading evaluations: trading activity is simulated and performance rewards are not guaranteed.