Week ahead
Week of 2 November: rates, elections and US jobs
The week's scheduled events for forex traders. The RBA and US midterm elections on Tuesday, eurozone inflation on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, US and Canadian jobs on Friday, and what each means under the challenge rules.
Two rate decisions and the US jobs report anchor the week, with the US midterm elections between them. The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. Eurozone inflation and a run of US business and labour reports fill the gaps. Below is what is scheduled, what public calendars show, and what each event means on a challenge account. This is a calendar, not a forecast: we do not say which way anything will move.
Where the week starts
Last week the Fed held its rate range, while the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate. The ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held theirs.
Friday 30 October's close left EUR/USD near 1.117, the US Dollar Index (DXY) near 102 and USD/JPY near 157.6. Gold's December futures settled at $3,898.90 an ounce. Brent's expiring December contract settled at $117.64 a barrel, up $2.76 on the day; that contract matters when comparing prices across the weekend. The US 10-year yield ended near 4.93%. These are Friday's closing references, not Monday's live prices.
US clocks went back on 1 November. US releases now sit one hour later in server time than in recent weeks: the jobs report is at 13:30, and the ISM surveys at 15:00. Server time stays UTC, and the daily reset stays at 00:00. A calendar still showing last week's US times needs checking.
The calendar
Times are server time (UTC). Previous and consensus figures are from public market reports at the time of writing. Where calendars disagree on the forecast, the table says "split". A dash means no figure is used.
| Day | Time | Event | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | 15:00 | US ISM manufacturing PMI, October | 54.5 | split |
| Tue 3 Nov | 03:30 | RBA cash rate | 4.60% | 4.85% |
| Tue 3 Nov | 15:00 | US JOLTS job openings, September | 7.08 million | split |
| Tue 3 Nov | 21:45 | New Zealand employment, Q3, q/q | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Tue 3 Nov | 21:45 | New Zealand unemployment rate, Q3 | 5.6% | 5.5% |
| Wed 4 Nov | 10:00 | Eurozone flash CPI, October, y/y | 3.8% | split |
| Wed 4 Nov | 10:00 | Eurozone flash core CPI, October, y/y | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Wed 4 Nov | 13:15 | US ADP employment, October | 90,000 | split |
| Wed 4 Nov | 15:00 | US ISM services PMI, October | 54.9 | split |
| Thu 5 Nov | 12:00 | Bank of England Bank Rate | 3.75% | 4.00% |
| Thu 5 Nov | 13:30 | US initial jobless claims | 194,000 | split |
| Fri 6 Nov | 13:30 | US nonfarm payrolls, October | 29,000 | split |
| Fri 6 Nov | 13:30 | US unemployment rate, October | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Fri 6 Nov | 13:30 | US average hourly earnings, October, m/m | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Fri 6 Nov | 13:30 | Canada employment change, October | −68,300 | 14,500 |
| Fri 6 Nov | 13:30 | Canada unemployment rate, October | 6.5% | 6.5% |
Monday's manufacturing survey starts the US data run. Tuesday also brings Swiss inflation and US factory orders. Sweden's Riksbank decides on Wednesday and Norges Bank on Thursday. Friday's preliminary US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations follow the jobs reports at 15:00. The US elections have no single release time: counting and headlines can continue through Wednesday's Asian session.
Tuesday: the RBA, elections and New Zealand jobs
The RBA announces at 03:30, with a hike to 4.85% from 4.60% shown in public calendars. Its Statement on Monetary Policy comes at the same time, and the press conference follows at 04:30. The decision and the new projections are separate pieces of news for AUD pairs; the first headline does not finish the event.
US job openings arrive at 15:00, but election headlines are not confined to that window. New Zealand's quarterly employment figures follow at 21:45. Employment is expected to rise 0.4% after 0.5%, with unemployment at 5.5% after 5.6%. Those figures arrive before the server reset, even though it is already Wednesday in New Zealand.
Wednesday: eurozone inflation and US surveys
The eurozone's first October inflation estimate comes at 10:00. Calendars differ on headline inflation, while the core forecast is 2.5%, unchanged from the previous reading. Headline and core are different measures; keep the labels with the figures when reading the release.
The US private payroll estimate from ADP comes at 13:15 and the ISM services survey at 15:00. Neither is Friday's official jobs report. With election counting also continuing, a move during a scheduled release need not have only one cause. Check the release time and your remaining daily room before adding another position.
Thursday: the Bank of England
The Bank of England publishes its decision, votes and Monetary Policy Report at 12:00. Public calendars show Bank Rate rising to 4.00% from 3.75%. The report brings new projections, and the press conference follows at 12:30. GBP pairs have more than the rate headline to digest.
US weekly jobless claims and productivity figures come at 13:30. That leaves another scheduled US data window after the Bank's press conference. A position carried through both is exposed to both sets of news, even if the first release has passed without a large move.
Friday: US and Canadian jobs together
The US October jobs report arrives at 13:30, alongside Canada's employment report. Public payroll forecasts differ, so there is no single consensus number in the table. The previous US payroll gain was 29,000; calendars show unemployment at 4.2% and hourly earnings rising 0.3% on the month. Read payrolls, revisions, unemployment and pay together rather than treating the first number as the whole report.
USD/CAD has domestic data on both sides at the same time. The later consumer sentiment release at 15:00 adds another US window before the close. Neither the calendar nor a consensus figure tells you the direction of the price reaction.
What the week means on a challenge account
- News trading is allowed, with limits. You may open, modify or close positions around scheduled announcements. The company may restrict trading shortly before, during or right after high-impact events. Any restrictions and restricted event lists are published in your dashboard (Challenge Rules 6.5). Check it before the two rate decisions and Friday's jobs reports.
- No bracketing the release. Placing a buy stop and a sell stop around the jobs report to catch the first spike in either direction is news bracketing, and it is prohibited (Challenge Rules 7.2(a)). A position based on your own view of the market is fine.
- Use the server day. New Zealand jobs at 21:45 on Tuesday count against Tuesday's daily limit. The reset is at 00:00, with rollover from about 23:55 to 00:15. Trading is allowed during rollover but execution can be worse (Challenge Rules 6.7). See how the daily drawdown limit works.
- Size against the day, not the balance. On a $50,000 Sprint the daily room is $2,000. December Brent rose $2.76 on Friday, which is $2,760 on one lot of 1,000 barrels. An adverse move of that size exceeds the full daily room before costs. See why 1% risk is a quarter of your day.
- Spreads and slippage count. Around rate decisions, during the thin Asian hours and at rollover, spreads can widen and fills can slip. Both go into floating equity, which is what the daily limit watches (Challenge Rules 6.8).
- The weekend. Positions can be held over the weekend, and the daily limit applies on weekends too (Challenge Rules 6.6). A gap at Monday's open counts like any other move.
Next
On Friday after the close we will look back at how the two decisions and US jobs data played out. Next week brings US consumer and producer inflation.
This article is market commentary for information only. It is not a forecast, a recommendation or financial advice, and prices are approximate, taken from public market reports at the time of writing. VFUNDED provides simulated trading evaluations: trading activity is simulated and performance rewards are not guaranteed.