Week of 26 October: five central banks in three days

This is the busiest week of the autumn. Five central banks announce decisions between early Wednesday and Friday morning: New Zealand, Canada, the US, the eurozone and Japan. Australia publishes its quarterly inflation figures on the same Wednesday, the US publishes its first estimate of third quarter growth and its preferred inflation measure on Thursday, and the UK government presents its budget. Below is what is scheduled, what markets expect, and what each event means on a challenge account. This is a calendar, not a forecast: we do not say which way anything will move.

Where the week starts

Last week, inflation came in above forecasts in the UK, at 3.5% against 3.4% expected, and a little below in Canada, at 3.1% against 3.2%. New Zealand's third quarter figure rose 0.7%, slightly under the 0.8% expected.

Friday's close left EUR/USD at about 1.1204, weighed down by worries about French public finances: the gap between French and German 10-year yields reached about 1.70 percentage points, its widest since 2011. The US Dollar Index ended near 101.8 and USD/JPY near 156.8. Gold fell about 4% on the week and closed near $4,000 an ounce. Brent settled at $116.72, its highest since late April, after a 3.1% gain on Friday alone. The US 10-year yield ended at about 5.00%.

Clocks in Europe went back an hour on Sunday, and US clocks follow on 1 November. Server time does not change, so the times below and the daily reset at 00:00 stay where they are. What changes is local time: London is now on server time, and for this one week New York is four hours behind London instead of five.

The calendar

Times are server time (UTC). Previous and consensus figures are from public market reports at the time of writing.

The press conferences follow the decisions: the Bank of Canada at 14:30, the Fed at 18:30 and the ECB at 13:45. The UK budget is presented on Wednesday, usually starting around midday London time. The US also has consumer confidence on Tuesday, and Germany, France, Italy and Spain publish their first inflation estimates for October on Friday. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report earnings during the week, which can move US stock indices after the close. China's official business surveys for October come out on Saturday, while the market is closed.

Wednesday: four events in one server day

Wednesday starts early. Australia's inflation figures come at 00:30, half an hour after the daily reset. Banks expect the trimmed mean measure, the one the Reserve Bank of Australia watches most, to rise about 1.0% for the quarter. The RBA meets on 3 November, and markets see a hike or a hold as roughly equally likely. Thirty minutes later, at 01:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its decision. Most local banks expect a hike to 3.00% from 2.75%, and markets price that at about 75% to 85%. Both events hit AUD and NZD pairs during the quiet hours of the Asian session.

In the afternoon the Bank of Canada decides at 13:45 and publishes its new Monetary Policy Report. Views are split: market pricing moved to more than 80% for a hike after the September inflation data, while some bank economists still expect a hold. When expectations are split like this, the move on the announcement can be larger in either direction.

The Fed follows at 18:00. It raised its range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, and almost all economists expect a hold this time. Futures price the chance of a hike at roughly 7% to 12%, and a hike in December at close to 80%. There are no new projections at this meeting, so the statement, the votes and Chair Warsh's press conference at 18:30 carry the news.

Thursday: US data, then the ECB

The US publishes third quarter GDP and September PCE inflation together at 12:30. Growth is expected to pick up to 3.0% from 2.2%. Headline PCE inflation is expected at 3.6% and the core measure at 3.1%. Forty-five minutes later, at 13:15, the ECB announces its decision. A hold at 2.50% is widely expected, with most economists looking for a hike in December. The press conference at 13:45 is likely to focus on France. EUR/USD can react to the US data and the ECB inside the same hour.

Friday: the Bank of Japan

Tokyo's inflation figures come out at 23:30 on Thursday, half an hour before the reset, and the Bank of Japan announces its decision during the Asian morning on Friday, usually around 03:00 server time but without a fixed time. A hold at 1.25% is expected. The focus is the Bank's new outlook report and whether it says inflation has reached its target, which markets would read as support for a hike in December. Later on Friday come eurozone growth for the third quarter and the US employment cost index.

What the week means on a challenge account

• News trading is allowed, with limits. You may open, modify or close positions around scheduled announcements. The company may restrict trading shortly before, during or right after high-impact events. Any restrictions and restricted event lists are published in your dashboard (Challenge Rules 6.5). With five rate decisions this week, check it every day.
• No bracketing the release. Placing a buy stop and a sell stop around the Fed decision to catch the first spike in either direction is news bracketing, and it is prohibited (Challenge Rules 7.2(a)). A position based on your own view of the market is fine.
• Early Wednesday belongs to Wednesday. Australian CPI at 00:30 and the RBNZ at 01:00 come just after the reset, so any loss on AUD or NZD pairs then counts against the new day's limit. Tokyo CPI at 23:30 on Thursday sits before the reset, so a loss then counts against Thursday. The rollover period, from about 23:55 to 00:15, falls between them. During rollover, trading is allowed but execution can be worse (Challenge Rules 6.7). See how the daily drawdown limit works.
• Size against the day, not the balance. On a $50,000 Sprint the daily room is $2,000. Brent rose about $3.55 on Friday, which is about $3,550 on one lot of 1,000 barrels. See why 1% risk is a quarter of your day.
• Spreads and slippage count. Around rate decisions, during the thin Asian hours and at rollover, spreads can widen and fills can slip. Both go into floating equity, which is what the daily limit watches (Challenge Rules 6.8).
• The weekend. Positions can be held over the weekend, and the daily limit applies on weekends too (Challenge Rules 6.6). China's business surveys land on Saturday, so a gap at Monday's open counts like any other move.

Next

On Friday after the close we will look back at how the five decisions played out. Next week brings the RBA and the Bank of England, US jobs data and US clocks going back, which moves US releases one hour later in server time.